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Market Comment - 21st July 2022

Posted by Stuart PritchardJuly 21, 2022

Good morning,

There is a new offshoot of the high inflation numbers in the UK. The interest the Government pays on bonds (government debt) is pegged to the Retail Price Index (RPI). This means the interest payments made by the Government on it's issued bonds is at the highest level since records began....which has led to further borrowing. Borrowing off Peter to feed Paul springs to mind. This is going to create yet another conundrum for the future Prime Minister. Unfortunately it's also had a small, negative effect on Pound rates which have dropped slightly this morning versus the Euro and the Dollar.

This means eyes will be turning to the ECB which is releasing it's interest rate decision at late lunch time followed by the US's employment data. Re the ECB, analysts are expecting them to raise the rate by 25 points to -0.25% (that's negative 0.25%). However a 0.5% hike isn't being ruled out. If it comes in at a 0.5% hike this could cause volatility. The ECB will explain their decision making process 30 minutes after the decision.

Tomorrow morning it's all about the UK data with consumer confidence numbers out in the early morning followed by retail sales numbers out at breakfast time.

As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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Today’s Economic Calendar

EUR: 13:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision

US: 13:30 Employment Data

EUR: 13:45 ECB Press Conference

UK: Thursday 00:01 Gfk Consumer Confidence

UK: Thursday 07:00 Retail Sales Data

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