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Market Comment - 5th August 2022

Posted by Stuart PritchardAugust 5, 2022

Good morning,

The Bank of England press conference sent shockwaves yesterday. First the BoE is predicting a continuance of super high inflation peaking at over 13% in October. Secondly, and more troubling, is they are predicting the UK will enter recession at the end of the year and remain in recession throughout 2023. Maybe the chance to become the new PM is more of a poisoned chalice than originally thought.

This had a sobering effect on Pound rates where there was a strong drop in rates versus the Dollar and the Euro. Interestingly the rate has already recovered versus the Dollar, but the drop versus the Euro has held....but not continued. This could well be because the BoE has often been quite realistic and open on it's views and predictions and might be a bellwether for the rest of the developed world.

House prices would appear to have finally slowed also. The Halifax reported an 11.8% annual growth against a predicted 15.1% and month on month showed a contraction of 0.1%. The 0.5% rate hike yesterday certainly won't push the market higher unless there's a flurry to try and lock in a fixed rate before there are further hikes.

Today sees non farm payroll in the States just after lunch. Analysts are predicted a slower growth this month of just 250,000 jobs. This will be watched keenly by anyone interested in Dollar rates. On Sunday there's also a raft of Chinese data centred around their import and export numbers.

Today’s Economic Calendar

US: 13:30 Non Farm Payrolls

CHN: Sunday 03:00 Import and Export Data

As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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