The GBP/EUR rate has reached the top of the mid term range again. This is the 11th time in 2022 so far that it's got to this level and not broken out. Hope and belief that the rate will going higher often need facts and data to back them up to actually make it happen. At this stage there doesn't appear to be the catalyst required to cause the breakout.
The UK interest rate decision might be the deciding factor. However that's not published until the 5th May.
Ukraine looks to be priced into the markets now so only an escalation or a major relieving of the situation will affect the markets in the short term.
The next cab off the rank in terms of effect on the market looks to be inflation and the overall cost of living facing households both in the UK and globally. Whilst inflation is eye wateringly high there's also the effect of tax changes brought in to pay down the support required through the pandemic. The piper ultimately needs paying and it's started from the end of March onwards.
Today sees further speeches from the ECB board as well as the US publishing its FOMC minutes later which could affect GBP/USD.
Speaking of GBP/USD anyone wanting to exchange Dollars for Sterling could be looking at a good rate this morning as the Pound gave up some short term strength to the Greenback.
As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.
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Today’s Economic Calendar
EUR: 10:00 ECB's Panetta Speech
EUR: 11:45 ECB's Lane Speech
US: 19:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes
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