Market insights

GBP sits at year highs versus the Euro and the Dollar

The forex markets favoured the Pound yesterday following the surprise unemployment data. Whilst Sterling continued it's better run the overall view on the UK economy looks less than rosy. Maybe the raft of UK data at breakfast tomorrow will either confirm the Pounds new strength or cause a shift back to the downside. Highlights are month on month GDP numbers (analysts expecting contraction of -0.3%), and industrial and manufacturing production data.

Before that though the Dollar could be in for a bouncy day as the US inflation numbers are reported. Economists are expecting a slowing down of rampant inflation to 3.1% annualised growth from 4% the previous month. This is quite a shift, so expect big moves if it comes out significantly different to that.

The Bank of Canada releases it's base rate decision mid afternoon. The expectation is for a 0.25% hike to 5%, so the Canadian Dollar will be under the spotlight around then.

If that wasn't enough there's Chinese import and export data out in the early hours of tomorrow so it's a real global affair for the next 24 hours.

Business news this morning is a mixed bag of positive and negative. There's ongoing talks around public sector net pay alongside side reports of shoplifting moving up a gear with the rise of organised gangs being involved. The counter positive story is the deal to support 19,000 jobs in the UK around engine manufacture by the makers of the London black cab.

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Economic calendar

US: 13:30 Inflation Data

CAN: 15:00 BoC Interest Rate Decision

CHN: Thursday 04:00 Import and Export Numbers

UK: Thursday 07:00 Month On Month GDP Data

UK: Thursday 07:00 Industrial and Manufacturing Production

As ever we look forward to looking after you and please keep an eye out for our next Insight.

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