Market insights

It's Non Farm Payroll day in the States - Market Insight 4th August 2023

Today sees the release of the Non Farm Payroll number in the US. This number gives an indication of how well the American economy is doing. Going back to when seasonal work was a heavy factor (typically harvest time), this number removes those seasonal fluctuations to indicate the expansion or contraction of the full time job market. Analysts are expecting 200,000 jobs to have been added in July.

Recent data from the States has been generally positive or what's termed as bullish for trading the markets. Therefore the non farm number will be closely watched later.

Going back to yesterday we saw the Bank of England raise the UK base rate to the expected 5.25%. This is the 14th hike now and brings the rate to 15 year highs. Great for savers....not so great for mortgage holders. On the back of this Pound rates went through some short term volatility, but calmed down quickly.

There's plenty of data out today besides the non farms to move currency rates. Retail sales from the Eurozone, average earning from the US and Canadian unemployment are the highlights. For the last one analysts are expecting a rate of 5.5%.

In the UK the only scheduled data happens at breakfast time on Monday when the Halifax releases its house price changes.

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Economic calendar

EUR: 10:00 Retail Sales

US: 13:30 Non Farm Payrolls

US: 13:30 Average Earnings

CAN: 13:30 Unemployment Rate

UK: Monday 07:00 Halifax House Prices

As ever we look forward to looking after you and please keep an eye out for our next Insight.

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