Market insights

Market Comment - 12th May 2021

The UK’s economy is conveying resilience; the UK’s economy shrank by 1.5% in the first quarter of the year 2021 however it grew by 2.1% in March alone. With the schools and most retail stores being closed within the first quarter of the year it caused a massive fall within the UK’s economy, the UK’s economy is now 8.7% smaller than it was before Covid-19.

The burden is moving on to the vaccines instead of restrictions and social distancing, they are being rolled out at an extremely fast pace now. 35.472m have received their first dose within the UK and 17.856m have received their second dose, meaning that one third of the adult population is fully vaccinated and two thirds have had their first dose.

Regarding the economic calendar yesterday, sterling has managed to maintain the gains from Monday; there has not been much other movement as there was not much high tier data releases yesterday. The German ZEW survey of investor sentiment for May was ahead of the predictions. On the contrary, the NFIB measure of US small business positivity for April climbed slightly higher however, it was below expected.

As of this morning, the main currency pairs open at a similar area to yesterday. EUR/USD has managed to keep hold of the position that it had yesterday, and EUR/GBP is also on a similar level as it was yesterday. Along with these pairs, GBP/USD also stays on similar ground.

The main highlight for today is the release of US CPI data for April; the headline inflation is predicted to come out at 3.6%, this would be the highest level in 10 years.

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Todays Economic Calendar

Wed 12th GER: 07:00 Final HICP (April)

UK: 07:00 GDP (Q1 Preliminary Reading)

UK: 07:00 GDP (March)

UK: 07:00 Industrial Output (March)

UK: 07:00 - Manufacturing

UK: 07:00 Goods Trade Balance (March) 

- Non-EU

FRA: 07:45 Final HICP (April)

EU-19: 10:00 Industrial Production (March)

IRL: 11:00 Residential Property Prices (March)

US: 13:30 CPI (April) 

- Core

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