Market insights

Good morning,

This mornings UK GDP numbers were a little lack lustre although broadly positive. Year on year came in at 6.8% and quarter on quarter was 1.1%. Although the 6.8% sounds good on paper it's comparing against an economy that was in lockdown this time last year. The overall effect is the Pound continues to push up versus the Euro and the Dollar this morning.

This could change early afternoon as the US reveals it's GDP data followed by their Consumer Confidence numbers mid afternoon.

Over in Europe they appear to be moving towards more Covid induced restrictions with Germany, Portugal, Finland and Sweden introducing post Christmas changes to hospitality.

Although Boris Johnson has stated there are no changes to England's restrictions right now, they haven't been ruled out and Rishi Sunak's move to help hospitality and leisure may be paving the way to similar measures here soon.

This will certainly be the driver of market moves over the next couple of weeks. Normally currency trading quietens over the Christmas break. However there is a good chance there will be volatility if Omicron continues to worsen. With the bank holidays being rolled over to the 27th and 28th of December we could see some big moves on the 29th.

Outside of all this the major moves have been in the Turkish Lira over the last couple of days. Versus the Pound the Lira had halved in value over the past 4 months until the start of this week. Great if you were going on holiday or buying a property there as the Pound got you twice as much Lira than it did in August. However that changed dramatically when President Erdogan started making changes and offering guarantees to savers on Monday resulting in the Lira gaining massive strength almost instantly.

As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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Today’s Economic Calendar

US: 13:30 GDP data

US: 15:00 Consumer Confidence

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