Market insights

Market Comment - 7th January 2022

Good morning,

The GBP/EUR rate rallied in the early hours on the back of Asian market trading. However the rally peaked at around 1am and has dropped back down into the recent, tight trading range. It looks like strong story needs to come along to make a decisive move one way or another. As mentioned previously the volatility around the Omicron variant seems to be priced in now and eyes appear to be on the UK's hospitalisation rate (and therefore any Government intervention required), and travel restrictions across the EU. With the Bank of England not announcing it's interest rate decision until the 3rd February, Covid is still the driver.

There is some key European data out this morning however, which is the preliminary inflation numbers and their Retail Sales data.

Apart from that the Pound is generally tracking sideways versus the majors other than the Australian Dollar where the Pound keeps on getting stronger.

Airline stocks are a great indicator of the markets view on international travel. As an example, IAG (the owner of British Airways) took a real nosedive on the back of Omicron but has now recovered back to pre Omicron levels indicating international travel has generally resumed with a few exceptions. Great news if you're looking at buying or selling abroad.

Over in the States it's Non Farm Payroll day. One of the most anticipated set of numbers out from the US as it is a bellwether indicator of the condition of the US economy monitoring the change in employee numbers discarding seasonal fluctuations. Economists are expecting the US to have added 400,000 jobs in December which is a healthy number. Anything outside of that could cause moves in the currency exchange rate markets.

As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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Today’s Economic Calendar

EUR: 10:00 Preliminary Inflation Data

EUR: 10:00 Retail Sales

US: 13:30 Non Farm Payrolls

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