Market insights

Market Comment - 7th October 2022

Good morning,

At breakfast this morning Halifax released their house prices. Month on month saw a contraction of -0.1% which was off the predicted growth of 0.5%. However, conversely, the year on year number came in at 9.9% growth against an expected 9.8% growth. The underlying message appears to suggest the housing market may have started flattening off.

Business headlines are laser focused on the cost of living situation especially around rising mortgage rates. The report is that the Chancellor is meeting the main banks to talk this through as, on paper, it looks as though the new rates being offered are quite a distance away from the actual underlying base rate hikes.

The main, somewhat dramatized, story is the potential for scheduled power cuts this Winter. It must be noted that drilling down into the story indicates the National Grid finds this highly unlikely. However the story is attention grabbing.

GBP/EUR appears to have failed, this time, at resistance as the rate is drifting slightly downwards at the moment. The same can be said of GBP/USD where the rate is again moving South. It appears the political rhetoric may have run out of steam.

Today sees a speech by the Bank of Englands David Ramsden followed by the BoE quarterly bulleting. The big news today, though, is the non farm payrolls in the US followed by the FED's John Williams speech. This is seen as a bellwether of the overall global employment position. Analysts are expecting job growth of 250k jobs. Any number outside of this could be positive or negative for the Dollar depending on which side of the fence it falls. In the early hours of tomorrow China releases its services purchase managers index (PMI). This, again, can shed some light on global services.


Today’s Economic Calendar

UK: 11:25 BoE David Ramsden Speech

UK: 11:30 BoE Quarterly Bulletin

US: 13:30 Non Farm Payrolls

US: 15:00 FED's John Williams Speech

CHN: Saturday 02:45 Caixin Services PMI


As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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