Sterling is tracking sideways against most major currencies. Versus the Dollar and the Euro the intraday volatility has also tightened up. Particularly against the Euro. With little news out today this could well continue into the weekend unless a news story happens. The danger with low volatility, if paired with lowering volume (which is happening against the Euro), is that any news could cause a relatively big move in underlying rates.
If nothing happens today or the weekend it could well be early morning on Monday when the catalyst for movement could happen. The UK releases its monthly GDP numbers at breakfast time. This could well be a leading indicator of what could happen when the next quarterly GDP numbers are revealed. This, in turn, will reveal if the UK is in a recession.
Dollar rates may move later in the afternoon when the US reveals a key indicator of consumer confidence.
Business news centres on the postal service strikes. Members of the CWU (Communication Workers Union) are due to strike on 9, 11, 14, 15, 23 and 24 December. This looks to be forcing the Prime Ministers hand to bring in laws to curb strikes. Other news is that banking rules are set to change with a view to relaxing regulation. Whilst this should be good for the UK economy and demonstrate benefits of Brexit, it could also lead to inherent risk taking in order to gain profit...which didn't play out too well in 2008.
Today’s Economic Calendar
US: 15:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
UK: Monday 07:00 Monthly GDP Numbers
UK: Monday 07:00 Industrial and Manufacturing Production Data
UK: Monday 07:00 Trade Balance
As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.
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