Market insights

Market Comment -12th October 2022

Good morning,

It's been a difficult start for the UK economy this morning. Month on month GDP came in at -0.3% contraction...worse than expected. Year on year industrial production came in at -5.2% contraction against a predicted growth of 0.6%. Year on year manufacturing production came in at -6.7% contraction against predicted growth of 0.8%. The upshot...the Pound has taking a small jump versus the Euro and the Dollar. It looks like we're entering into similar situations following the credit crunch. Bad news is often seen as a potential catalyst for central banks to intervene and help prop things up. Meaning, what should be negative data for the pound, ends up being positive. Maybe there are strange times ahead.

The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, has been totally forthright that the bond buy back program will end on Friday. This was a safety net for certain pension schemes. However in his speech yesterday evening he was clear that pension funds had had time to get their ducks in a row. This caused an immediate drop in the Pound although the rate has recovered this morning as mentioned.

Today sees a mixture of reports and speeches which, based on the last 24 hours, could well have a bearing on GBP, EUR and USD rates.


Today’s Economic Calendar

UK: 09:30 Financial Policy Committee Minutes and Statement

UK: 12:30 BoE's Huw Pill Speech

EUR: 14:30 ECB President, Christine Lagarde, Speech

EUR: 19:00 ECB's Philip Lane Speech

US: 19:00 Federal Open Market Committee Minutes

US: 23:30 FED's Michelle Bowman Speech

UK: Thursday 00:01 RICS Housing Price Balance

GER: Thursday 07:00 Inflation Data


As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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