Market insights

Market Comment - 16th May 2023

Good morning,

UK unemployment came in at 3.9%. This was higher than the expected 3.8% but only marginally. The upshot of this is that Pound rates took an immediate tumble as the UK economy could be in slightly worse shape than anticipated. Interestingly the statistic that sits at the top of this number are the long term ill which is at a record high of 2.5 million.

Also in the news is the seemingly ever present story around the cost of produce and the prices at supermarkets. The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is due to meet with representatives of the major supermarkets along with farmers and food producers in the hope a solution can be found.

Across the board it's a story of the Pound generally moving sideways so it will be interesting to see if Pound rates hold or if there's a pull back in the near term.

Today it's about the Eurozone preliminary GDP out shortly. Economists are expecting quarter on quarter growth of 0.1%. As this is close to the dreaded negative zone this will be closely watched.

There's plenty more to get your teeth into today also. US retail sales, Canadian inflation (analysts expecting annualised 4.1% growth), a speech by the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, a couple of speeches from the FED. If that wasn't enough there's also preliminary GDP numbers out from Japan in the early hours of tomorrow.

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Economic calendar

EUR: 10:00 Preliminary GDP Data

US: 13:15 FED's Loretta Meister Speech

US: 13:30 Retail Sales

CAN: 13:30 Inflation Numbers

US: 13:55 FED's Raphael Bostic Speech

EUR: 15:00 ECB's Christine Lagarde Speech

US: 17:15 FED's John Williams Speech

US: 20:15 FED's Lori Logan Speech

US: Wednesday 00:00 Raphael Bostic Speech

JPN: Wednesday 00:50 Preliminary GDP Data

As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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