Market insights

Market Comment - 3rd May 2023

Good morning,

Eurozone preliminary inflation numbers came in around expectation at 7% annualised growth. On the back of that there wasn't much movement in GBP/EUR.

That's pretty much the order of the day for the Pound as it stands. Generally tracking sideways against most major currencies.

The only currency outside of that is GBP/AUD there a surprising 0.25% hike to 3.85% by the Reserve Bank of Australia early on Tuesday saw the Australian Dollar jump significantly.

Today could see volatility both in GBP/EUR shortly with the Eurozone unemployment rate (analysts expecting no move at 6.6%) before a raft of US data.

There's ADP employment change first followed by the Institute of Supply Management's purchasing manager index. However both of those pale against the FED's interest rate decision in the early evening followed by a policy statement and the Federal Open Market Committee's press conference.

Economists are expecting yet another 0.25% hike to the base rate bringing it to 5.25%.

Whilst consumers keep spending the inflation rate will keep going up so central banks have little choice but to hike rates. The only offset would be the decreasing price of wholesale energy prices which could drive down inflation also.

Business news remains fairly quiet. A shake up of rules for companies to get onto the UK stock market is one of the bigger stories. UK based ARM Holdings has decided to list in the US which has prompted the review of the rules around listing.

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Economic calendar

EUR: 10:00 Unemployment Rate

US: 13:15 ADP Employment Change

US: 15:00 ISM Services PMI

US: 19:00 FED Interest Rate Decision

US: 19:00 FED's Monetary Policy Statement

US: 19:30 FOMC Press Conference

AUS: Thursday 02:30 Imports and Exports

As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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